Good words from the 許冠傑 song
命里有時終需有
命里無時莫強求
Saw an article about the talk by 曾淵倉 in 新明日報.
He mentioned that sometimes in investing, you will need the element of luck and you must believe in fate as well. Sometimes you got it, sometimes you don't.
In any case, only when you 看破 then you will not suffer.
When you sell the too early and make less, your heart pain.
When you sell too late and suffer losses, your heart pain.
You make or you lose, you still pain.
Well, there are things you cannot control in life. But if put the importance of making or losing money lower, there will be a good chance that you will make it.
Learn2win
命里無時莫強求
Saw an article about the talk by 曾淵倉 in 新明日報.
He mentioned that sometimes in investing, you will need the element of luck and you must believe in fate as well. Sometimes you got it, sometimes you don't.
In any case, only when you 看破 then you will not suffer.
When you sell the too early and make less, your heart pain.
When you sell too late and suffer losses, your heart pain.
You make or you lose, you still pain.
Well, there are things you cannot control in life. But if put the importance of making or losing money lower, there will be a good chance that you will make it.
Learn2win
posted by Learn2win at
10:30 am
5 Comments:
I would buy more only if it hits 0.47 (on high volume), that is, it breaks its 52 week high of 0.46. Why? Two factors are at play in my view.
1. The human need to avoid loss (pain) and gain pleasure. It is psychologically proven that a loss is 2.5 times worse than a gain.
At the following dates and price where it touched 0.45-0.46, the following volume changed hands.
7/13 - 10MM shares
7/16 - 4.9MM shares
7/25 - 8.3MM shares
Most investors do not cut their losses. So they sit there dwindling their thumbs and wait, and wait and wait.
The pain of them seeing their stock tanked is too great, esp. looking at the price on 8/17 when it dropped to 0.295 cents at one time. Most investors will promise themselves - "JUST LET ME BREAKEVEN AND I WILL GET OUT".
This creates pockets of resistance for the stock. The longist want the stock to move but the "security guards" wants to get out once the stock hit their bought price weeks ago. Those wanting to get out might easily overwhelm those buying up and the stock will turn down again.
4. Only if it breaks its 52 wk high on conviction (high volume) that it will move even higher because there is no longer any more overhang of stocks.
The second human condition is called recency bias. It is a psychological condition of the mind that only remembers the most recent lows and highs. So there are traders out there who trade support and resistance and will sell before they hit the resistance (52 wk high).
Recency bias is also why some stock market watchers are saying that we must not break below the recent low of 2962(?) as it will create more downward draft.
This is just my 2 cts small little view of the market.
Not a recommendation for any action ;-)
MM
Please consider donating a portion of the gains to your favorite charity you might receive from this lead if you do intend to take action and made good money;-).
Extend a helping hand to the less fortunate in our society. ;-)
This is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks.
MM
INDUSTRY WATCH
Smiling Dry-Bulk Shippers See The Boom Times Lasting For Years
BY MARILYN ALVA INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
If anyone knows about the perfect storm, it’s dry-bulk shipping companies that ply the Seven Seas.
They haul iron ore, coal, grains and other bulk commodities.
Thanks to a convergence of factors — including the growing needs of China and other developing nations — they’re also raking in more cash than ever. Charter rates are at record highs.
“We’ve already surpassed profits from last year,” said Eleftherios Papatrifon, chief financial officer of Excel Maritime Carriers EXM .
Along with other dry-bulk shipping executives at an industry conference put on by Jefferies & Co. in New York on Wednesday, he predicted 2008 would be another banner year.
Others said the dry-bulk boom could last even longer.
Upbeat Comments
The upbeat comments came from some of the bigger dry-bulk companies, such as DryShips DRYS and Eagle Bulk Shipping EGLE , and smaller outfits, including startup Ocean-Freight OCNF .
They had their reasons, and not all of them pointed solely to China.
“We think the market is undervaluing India,” said Sophocles Zoullas, Eagle’s chief executive.
Citing a massive urban infrastructure project just getting underway in 62 second-tier cities in India, he said the need for steel and concrete will explode over the next several years.
Iron ore is needed to make steel, and prices are already at record highs. Shipping titans say industry buzz has iron ore rates going up 20% to 25% next year.
Demand for iron ore certainly isn’t slowing elsewhere, either.
China continues to suck in much of the available supply from key source countries such as Brazil and Australia, leaving many other customers scrambling for what’s left.
The supply crunch often means customers must tap into more distant sources, meaning longer ocean voyages — and more revenue — for shipping firms.
China also became a net importer of coal for the first time this year. In itself, that’s good news for dry-bulk business. Also, like iron ore, coal customers besides guzzler China are pressed to bring in supplies from longer distances than usual.
“Charter rates are setting all-time highs on a daily basis,” said Douglas Mavrinac, managing director and lead maritime analyst at Jefferies.
The average spot rate for large capesize ships averaged $150,000 a day last week, while smaller panamax boats fetched an average $75,000 per day on the spot market, according to Jefferies.
While its outlook on the crude oil and product tanker market is cautious over the next two years, Jefferies’ view of the dry-bulk shipping market over that time is favorable.
In addition to strong demand for iron ore, significant new supply is coming out of Australia and Brazil to meet it, Mavrinac says.
“So there’s more to ship,” he said. “So much so, it’s outstripping the number of new ships being delivered from shipyards.”
Port congestion is adding to the vessel supply crunch. The long waits to unload in ports has reduced dry-bulk vessel capacity by more than 11%, said Diana Shipping DSX President Anastassis Margaronis.
In India alone, he said, port capacity must increase by 130%. That’s not likely to happen anytime soon.
Said OceanFreight CEO Robert Cowen: “The whole logistics chain is being pulled tight.”
To keep up with demand, dry-bulk operators are stepping up ship orders.
In July, Eagle Bulk announced it would spend $1.1 billion to buy 26 new supramax vessels — the smallest type of dry-bulk ship, for delivery starting next year through 2012. The firm acquired 39 other ships in the last two years for $1.5 billion.
TBS International TBSI expects delivery of four new ships later this year through the end of 2008. It has contracted for six new ships to be built in China for its core Asian and South American markets, at about $35.4 million each, with delivery expected in 2009 and 2010.
“These ships are sorely needed, especially as globalization goes forward,” TBS’ CEO Joseph Royce said.
Golden Ocean Group, listed on Norway’s stock exchange, has ordered 23 vessels for delivery between 2008 and 2010.
Overcapacity
Since overcapacity is an ongoing concern in the dry-bulk business, the higher number of deliveries slated for 2009 and 2010 caused some to question the potential for rate drops.
But shippers waved away the concerns.
“Demand is overwhelming and will be from 2010 and beyond. You haven’t seen the full strength of India,” said Quintana Maritime
QMAR Chief Executive Stamatis Molaris.
Not all of the boom in business comes from iron ore and coal. TBS transports all kinds of dry cargo, from fertilizer to finished steel. TBS’s Royce said renewals from customers are “at higher (rate) levels than anytime in the past.”
Jeffries’ Mavrinac says rates will keep climbing through 2007, and that 2008 rates should be higher than in 2007.
Since they are more volatile, spot rates are typically higher than fixed rates. For now, firms that have more spot-rate exposure, such as Dry-Ships, can “maximize their returns,” Mavrinac said.
DryShips’ Chief Executive George Economou said 98% of the firm’s fleet next year will be left unfixed “to take advantage of the strong environment.”
Genco Shipping GNK is in the middle. It uses a balanced approach of both spot and fixed contracts.
Quintana’s Molaris said his company has been criticized for its emphasis on fixed-time charters “in this boom market.”
But he said, “We run the company to minimize market risk. We have significant upside potential for the risk we take.”
Eagle Bulk also has a higher degree of fixed charters than spot-rate deals. But since renewals are likely to be priced at higher levels, as Mavrinac says, the company isn’t shifting gears.
“This is the first time I’ve seen in my career charterers coming to us and asking for packages,” Eagle Bulk’s Zoullas said. “Charterers are saying, ‘Give us more years.’ ”
Thanks to exploding demand, especially in Asia, and a limited number of big ships, dry-bulk shippers are in the sweet spot of their business cycle.
Published October 17, 2007
Sparkling UOB-Kay Hian
By VEN SREENIVASAN
IF THERE is a counter which has stood out in recent weeks, it has to be the Singapore Exchange (SGX). The stock has risen almost 20 per cent this month, and is up a whopping 230 per cent for the year.
Much of the recent surge has been due to market talk of mergers or acquisitions (M&A) involving SGX. But SGX's rally has also been underpinned by the buoyancy and robustness of the Singapore equity market.
The daily average value of shares traded on the Singapore exchange almost trebled to $2.64 billion in the third quarter, from $947 million a year earlier. And after a brief hiatus brought on by the US sub-prime concerns, the local market has taken off once again, with volumes picking up and the benchmark index hitting a series of new highs in the past few weeks.
However, lost in all of this is the fact that Singapore's broking houses are also chalking up record numbers. And leading the pack is listed UOB-Kay Hian.
The result of an amalgamation of eight stockbroking houses, UOB-Kay Hian is by far the biggest player in town with almost 1,000 brokers - twice as many as its nearest competitor, Kim Eng.
Commanding almost a third of the market's sales force, its sheer size and earnings engine have prompted comparisons with SGX.
Yet, with a portfolio which ranges from stockbroking and margin financing to corporate finance and investment banking across the region, this company has a breadth of business which is much wider than SGX, whose main source of income is clearing fees.
It already controls the lion's share of M&A and IPOs in Singapore, and has a virtual stranglehold on the high value-added China IPOs and secondary placement.
It also has active companies in Thailand, Kuala Lumpur and Hong Kong, giving it a more diversified geographical base and making it a proxy for these markets. And it recently bought into a fast-growing Vietnam-based fund management outfit to expand its reach into that country.
The company reported a 64.7 per cent surge in second-quarter net profit to $79.7 million, which translated to earnings per share of 11 cents, versus 6.68 cents a year earlier. The Q2 results raised its first-half net earnings 74.3 per cent to $140.9 million, from $80.8 million a year earlier.
The strong Q2 bottom line was on the back of a 76.3 per cent rise in topline revenue to $219.48 million as commission, interest, trading and corporate finance income surged. Commission income rose a whopping 93.4 per cent to $182.19 million, while interest income surged 115.3 per cent to $24.48 million.
UOB's results come barely two weeks after Singapore's second-biggest stockbroker, Kim Eng Holdings, unveiled a four-fold year-on-year rise in Q2 net profit to $55.1 million.
In fact, together, the total profit of these two broking houses during that quarter - at $135 million - already surpassed SGX's $130 million for its July-September first quarter.
The value proposition becomes more apparent when one compares some interesting numbers.
UOB-Kay Hian's stock is currently trading at a price-book multiple of about 2 times, compared with 20 times for SGX. And its price-earnings multiple is around 8 times, compared with about 33 times price-earnings for the operator of the bourse.
If the broking house rakes in a conservative $100-120 million during the second half, this would mean a record full-year profit of around $250 million, translating into a PER of around 6 times - making it the 'cheapest' billion-dollar company on the bourse.
Interestingly, China's Orient Securities Co and a dozen other brokerages are planning to offer their shares to the public at PERs of 18 times and higher.
Little wonder, then, that fund managers will soon be knocking on UOB-Kay Hian's door - if they haven't already done so, that is. It offers a much cheaper and more strategically positioned exposure to Singapore and other regional markets.
DJ MARKET TALK:China Fund Unlikely To Buy Cosco, S-Shares-Analyst
0231 GMT [Dow Jones] China's recently launched US$200 billion sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corp., unlikely to invest in Cosco (F83.SG), other S-shares, ABN Amro analyst Daphne Roth tells Dow Jones Newswires; "It doesn't make sense for them to buy their own Chinese companies when they've just divested a lot of state-owned enterprises." Says fund may instead buy shares of Singapore companies like Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG), SembMarine (S51.SG); "these are the things that they don't already have, apart from Cosco. It makes sense for them to buy into such companies to learn their skills." Cosco +0.6% at S$7.85, Keppel off 1.3% at S$15, SembMarine +3.7% at S$5.60. (FKH)
The Lessons Of Black Monday
Investing: What was hard to endure is sweet to recall, according to a French proverb. But whoever said that was never long stocks in a market crash. For that, there’s only one word: painful.
Masochists are nevertheless out in force this week, reminiscing about Oct. 19, 1987 — infamous Black Monday — when the Dow industrial average plummeted 22.6%, the equivalent of more than 3,000 points today. With the benefit of hindsight, they’re throwing in “lessons learned” for good measure.
Some of these lessons we agree with (never let program traders take control of the New York Stock Exchange), and some we don’t (the chances of its happening again are “infinitesimal”). But some of the biggest caveats, in our opinion, have been left out altogether. To wit:
Beware a new Fed chief. Especially a new Fed chief bent on establishing his anti-inflation bona fides.
Alan Greenspan has been given much of the credit for “saving” the market after the crash by promptly adding liquidity to the system. Less often noted, however, is the role he played in instigating the sell-off.
We still remember the summer of ’87, when the Fed chairman designate appeared on Louis Rukeyser’s “Wall $treet Week” TV show. In response to a question about the U.S. economic outlook, which at the time seemed pretty good, Greenspan said something to the effect that things would probably get worse before they get better.
Then, only weeks after being sworn in, Greenspan saw to it that his prediction came true: He raised the discount rate for the first time in 3 1/2 years — and the stock market crashed for the first time in 58 years.
Rates should be changed only for economic reasons. When policymakers try to “prove” themselves, it only creates mischief.
Fear of inflation is almost as bad as inflation itself.
Inflation was fairly modest in 1987. Yet, thanks to rising oil prices (Treasuries sold off that summer on inflation fears fanned by a “surge” in crude above $20 a barrel), everyone was convinced we were headed back to the 1970s.
But we weren’t, just as we aren’t today, thanks to the tech boom and far better management of Fed policy.
Don’t talk down your currency. When you do, what you’re really telling people is your assets aren’t worth what they paid for them. This will always cause selling.
But Greenspan opined that the dollar would likely drop further, and Treasury Secretary James Baker III, who earlier in the year had negotiated the so-called Louvre Accord with the other G7 nations to stabilize currencies, couldn’t keep his mouth shut either.
Jawboning the dollar down to “punish” the Germans and others for running big trade surpluses with the U.S. created uncertainty about U.S. assets. Foreign investors don’t like to think they could make a 10% capital gain on a stock, then see it erased by an unfavorable currency move.
Don’t ever vote for protectionist trade policies.
They don’t work, have seriously deleterious economic effects and make investors very nervous.
But in April 1987, dollar and bond prices plunged after Rep. Dick Gephardt, a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, foolishly proposed legislation to require cuts in trade surpluses by foreign nations, especially those in Asia. (Sound familiar?)
Observers had worked themselves up into such a lather about the trade deficit that two of the biggest down days in the market leading up to Black Monday came after the release of “disappointing” trade data.
Don’t criminalize capitalism. The worst excesses in the ’80s weren’t by those who engaged in insider trading —though some practitioners surely deserved what they got — but by the government’s collect-as-many-scalps-as-possible attack on Wall Street.
The year 1987 saw a number of investigations, pleas and arrests of traders. They included Ivan Boesky, Martin Siegel, and a number of people at Drexel Burnham, Merrill Lynch, Paine Webber, Kidder Peabody and Goldman Sachs. Takeover king Carl Icahn also got investigated, and Boyd Jeffries of Jeffries & Co. pled guilty to two felonies.
All this led to the impression of a market that was rigged from behind the scenes. It really put a damper on things.
Don’t underestimate world events. People forget that in 1987, just like today, everyone was worried about tensions in the Middle East. Iran had hit a U.S.-flagged tanker on Oct. 16 with missiles, sending oil prices higher and creating concerns about war. Just five months earlier, Saddam Hussein had launched a missile at the USS Stark, killing 37 sailors. That’s right: Iraq. Take what “experts” say with a grain of salt. The ’87 market didn’t suddenly turn south on Monday, Oct. 19. It topped nearly two months earlier and had fallen 500 points, or 18%, before the opening bell on Oct. 19. A “bear market” usually is declared after the averages drop 20%. In other words, that fall’s “correction” was verging on a bear market before the carnage of Black Monday. Granted, much of the damage came in the three sessions before Black Monday. But analysts and money managers were relatively upbeat throughout. After the Dow sold off 7% (to 2545) in late August and early September, portfolio managers were telling Investor’s Daily (as we were known back then) that the market was “holding up” well and should “find a bottom” around 2500. One of the shrewdest analysts of his day saw the Dow at 3000 sometime in January 1988.
Wall Street was still shrugging as late as Oct. 6, after the Dow fell a record 92 points and the market was heading into its climactic two-week slide.
“A very normal pullback and profit-taking in a bull market” is how one analyst described the action. “The market is not in need of a resuscitator.”
“I don’t think we’re in for a bear market yet,” a top-performing money manager told us on Oct. 15, after the Dow sank another 58, “I still think we are correcting a bull market.”
Even on Friday, Oct. 16, after the Dow lost 108 points, or 4.8%, on record volume, a senior market specialist with the nation’s biggest brokerage thought “the bull market that began in ’82 probably has more to go.”
Then came Black Monday.
Stay focused on the market itself. Anyone who was watching the major averages day-in and day-out, and who knew the difference between healthy and unhealthy market action, should not have been surprised when the bottom fell out.
As the chart above shows, no fewer than 11 of the 37 sessions between the market top of Aug. 25 and Oct. 19 were “distribution days” — with the Dow closing lower on an increase in trading. That’s more than enough to signal a market in trouble. If that alarm bell wasn’t a loud enough, acknowledgment of the Dow’s first violation of its 200-day moving average since the bull market began in 1982 would still have gotten you out in time. Yes, we know: All this is easier said than done. Besides, that was then, and this is now. It’s probably worth noting, though, that there’s a new Fed chief in town now, that high oil and a weak dollar have rekindled inflation fears, that the Middle East remains as violent and volatile as ever and that Congress is swinging dangerously back toward protectionism. Just a thought on this 20th anniversary.
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